What impact do we think the economy is going to have on MR over the next 6 months?

[Ray Poynter]

With all the news of gloom and doom in the financial sector, what do we think the implications are for Market Research. I was at Congress last week and most people seemed very confident, but when I probed them, several admitted that although their hearts said everything was fine, their heads were telling them that all this bad news must catch up with MR at some point.

[Matt Rhodes]

I think it depends on what basis you are selling and who your clients are. Of course there are always the counter-cyclical sectors (take-away food, insurance, accountancy and bunk bed retailers) but the real argument in the economy is going to be the ROI one.

This may mean that the services and solutions that agencies offer to clients will need to be more tightly tailored, but I think the outlook if probably less gloomy than in other sectors. Businesses more than ever before need to get it right first time with what they take to market, and need to make sure they are really up-to-speed with their changing needs, habits, beliefs and intentions. In this kind of climate, research is more important than ever.

Of course budgets will continue to be squeezed, I know of one large organisation who put out to tender a larger CATI project with less than half the budget they had last year but still wanting comparable and robust data. So as well as making sure we pitch correctly to clients we also need to make sure that we continue to develop more cost-effective methods.

Sounds like lots of work for agencies.

[Simon Kendrick]

It depends on specific sectors, but for the most part I believe it will good for the MR industry. Marketing heads are now going to come under greater supervision from the finance officer. Therefore, they are going to need numbers to support their hunches pre and post execution. That is where MR comes in.

[Sinead Hasson]

Great to see that someone has asked this question - I think it is valuable to discuss it sensibly before the rumours start to drive us all mad. From everything I hear its all fine at the moment but I agree that this bad news must catch up with MR at some point. It could be a matter of time which means that right now the agencies need to take care of their client relationships and make sure they capitalise on every opportunity. Market Research is usually relatively stable in recession so this could be an opportunity to recruit good talent based on relative job security. So in the next 6 mths I dont think there will be much of an impact - its more likely to hit further down the line.

[Ray Poynter]

Although the MR industry was not greatly impacted by the 2001 recession, my recollection is that the 1990-1991 recession was much harder on MR, with quite a lot of closures and redundancies. One problem for the MR industry is that when we make people redundant, they often do not come back to the industry when the economy picks up again, leading to skill shortages.

[Sinead Hasson]

I absolutely agree with this point and as the general consensus seems to be that there will be some sort of impact we need to make sure that the talented researchers know that they are valued and their positions are secure. Regarding Steves point about the blurring of methods, the importance of measurement etc - this is a chance for clients to talk internally about the importance of research and for agencies to make sure they are completely in sync with their clients. Therefore it is vital to talk to your staff - they will have skills that probably arent being utilised.

[Nigel Legg]

I agree with Matt - this is a time when having the research data, and being sure of your product, are even more important than ever to companies, both large and small, and therefore market research of some form is going to be vital. I also feel that the companies which innovate now - through bringing new or refined products to market, or through modifying their strategy - are going to be the ones that ride out the storm with the least damage, and so again, there will be scope for market research there. The advertising industry is already showing something of a downturn, so I think the standard ad-testing survey work will take something of a downturn. Overall, it's difficult to predict (and I must admit to being a little worried).

[Steve Gentile]

I entered this field in 1990, during the first major recession. And the second in 2001. And in between these, the dot com boom and bust - and since 2001 (as before) there have been sectored drops. With each tidal flow of capital and select interest has come a redefining of the work that is being done in general, and harmonically with it, how we approach and complete our work within it. Almost 20 years later, I have survived and am stronger through it all.
My memory is that the MR industry has always been before the general tide of things, and allowing us as the unique window to vantage the bigger picture of things. As the years progress, our lead time with this knowledge has decreased enormously.
The "doom and gloom in the financial sector" are the pulse and I agree. But also know that it is bigger than that - much bigger, broader, and deeper. The interconnectedness of things backed and influenced by the financial houses - in loans, mortgages, credit, as well as employment, benefits, energy, durable goods, consumables - is all greatly impacting our lives not only occupationally as researchers of this stuff, but also as participants in the world economy of these goods and services. To think ourselves divorced from this or immune from it is a fool's dance, even if the emperor wears no clothes.
We will find a continued blurring of lines between qual and quant work, methods and measurement will continue to morph and integrate. Budgets as we knew them will be a fond memory as unknowledgeable cuts occur in senior and seasoned staffing, favoring (by the powers that are) the bottom line over the un-measurable depth of understanding and the unquestionable value of a seasoned heart, eye, and mind working intimately with a brand objectively as we do.
In the words of Bob Dylan - "the times they are a changin'" and with them, so do we.
Hold your ground, do good research, and find ways that explore the new world that is forming around us - it can be an exciting time of trying - sometimes failing and sometimes succeeding. As a friend says, "It's not the height of the fall that kills you, it's the hardness of the ground below." Here's to soft earth, and graceful flights.

[Elina Halonen-Knight]

Steve - could you please clarify what you mean with this as I'm not entirely sure I understood you:

My memory is that the MR industry has always been before the general tide of things, and allowing us as the unique window to vantage the bigger picture of things. As the years progress, our lead time with this knowledge has decreased enormously.

Do you mean that MR industry precedes the general tide of things and therefore there should already have been some impact, or something else?

[Steve Gentile]

Hi Elina -

In other words and for example, although the economy in the streets may have been sluggish in March, we'd be doing well in March. In September, we'd see the same gangbuster activity in the streets. This was when I started.

Now, the window between the 2 periods is much much less - perhaps a month.

Put another way - in 1990, we'd book jobs 4 months in advance and have an ability to look at our anticipated and upcoming work that far out and either shake in our boots or sigh with relief. Now, it is less than 1 month out maximum. Looking at our new timescale with the old "glasses" on, we'd be popping Prilosec instead of the usual M&Ms.

Is this clearer? It's NOT that MR has affect on the world economy, it simply was a measure of the testing and branding work and exploratory work going on that generated the knowledge of "if money's being spent to research this now, the report will hit the ad agency in 2 weeks, ads will be modified in 2 weeks, space will be purchased, etc etc and in about 3 months, it hits the street. That Time to market has seriously evaporated, as we all know.

email me at - [e-mail] - i'd be happy to talk more.

[Andy Booth]

Market Research can help companies position their brands to stand out from the competition in most economic climates. However, the problem here appears to be of a different order to anything we've seen in the last 80 years. Yesterday saw 5 banks having to be bailed out in one day! If there's no liquidity in the market you won't be spending as much money on a customer survey to understand why all your high end customers are now shopping at Lidl. Business needs money flowing around the system to keep operating and at the moment the plug seems to have been pulled. Market Research has generally ridden out the bad times in the past but it will have to be very resilient if it is to get through the next 6 months or so totally unscathed. In essence, I think that we may find ourselves working to tighter budgets, with shorter lead times to find more succinct solutions to more basic questions. However, we are not just MR professionals, we are individuals who are just as likely to be affected by other aspects of this financial situation. Let's hope things pick up soon.

[Sarah Penny]

On the plus side, Lidl will be in need of research as well in order to improve their "customer experience" so that when this down turn changes around, the high end customers stay with Lidl and don't go back to Selfridges food hall! happy days for Lidl and Aldi in the meantime though!

[Andy Booth]

Good point! There's always an opportunity.
I'm off to get some Schwartzfeld Schinken now.