Will Sarah Palin Be the President in 2012?

[Stacey Jenkins]

I think Obama will win this one, but I believe that Palin has a significant chance to be the first female president in 2012 or 2016.

[Ray Poynter]

Coming from the UK, I may be missing the point, but here goes anyway. My suspicion is that Sarah Palin's maximum impact is when people first see her. She is so different, appears more direct than other politicians, and is much more like a large number of US citizens than the typical 'suits'. However, I doubt that she will be flexible enough to stay relevant to middle-America. Her style of debating, is effective when you first see it, but after a while I suspect it will be seen as shallow and predictable.

I think she has painted herself into a niche that could keep her popular with a large minority, but never popular enough a majority.

[Mario Menti]

Re. her style of debating, have you seen the Sarah Palin debate chart? http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/10/the-pa...

Very funny I think..

[Ray Poynter]

I suspect a very similar chart could apply to most VP candidates. I have a hunch that being a VP speaker is much harder than being the Presidential candidate, because the Number 1 can say what he likes, but the VP has to fit into whatever inconsistent set of half-truths the Presidential candidate is currently spinning.

[Simon Kendrick]

These things are almost impossible to predict. 5 years ago, who had heard of Obama and would have backed him to beat out Kerry, Clinton, Gore, Pelosi et al

[Ray Poynter]

Hi Simon, as I remember the coverage of the 2004 Democratic Convention the standout speaker was Barack Obama, who was at that time a candidate for the Senate. I remember lots of people talking about him as a future president, although not as a 2008 candidate.

Winners can be hard to spot, but losers are sometimes easier. Dukakis and Quayle did not look like people who would win in the future. However, when Nixon lost to Kennedy, most of us thought he was out for good (although I was only 4 at the time).

[Simon Kendrick]

That's why I said 5 years ago :-) But yes, I take your point...

[Richard Scionti]

It's all speculation - of course - but I think the Palin shelf-life is already coming to an end. There's no there there.

[Cveta Rahneva]

Palin definitely gave "flavour" to McCain's campaign. I don't know whether she'll make a presidential candidate, but 4 (or even 8 years) years are enough time to shine up and improve some gaps which slipped by in this run, most of them, in my personal opinion, caused by lack of experience for such a high profile job. I think she came out of nowhere and gain quite of a large support in a very short time - it's not to be underestimated, don't you think?

[Richard Scionti]

She has certainly helped solidify the Republican base for McCain. She is a confident and effective public speaker. I agree with you that 4 or 8 years is a long time during which to refine one's image but my sense is her challenge is more akin to Dan Quayle's than Ronald Reagan's. As a retail politician she is accomplished but the gaps in her knowledge of world affairs and political economy seem so fundamentally vast that I'd be surprised if she is a real factor in the 2012 or 2016 presidential contests. Of course, I've been surprised before!

[Sam Winstanley]

Best thing Palin can probably do is keep a very low profile and that might be hard. She's providing so much welcome comedic material that the media may not let her be forgotten.4 years is a long time in politics and her (lack of) popularity (what I mean by this is she actively encourages an anti-vote in a way McCain might not) might be nothing that a good war wouldn't fix. If the democrats do win and Barak remains popular in the first term then does anybody stand a chance?

If he wins and is not popular, I don't think that Palin would have the kind of credentials and connections needed to become a presidential candidate for the republicans. The media attack her to much and having a "not so smart" president in George W has done the party a lot of damage, so I'd expect the republicans to push for somebody who's a bit smarter and a bit less alternative. Perhaps Hilary?

[Andrew Jeavons]

It's clear that the McCain camp, or at least some of the followers, are already focussing blame on Palin for the loss of the election. She appealed to the core Republicans, but that is not the group you need to win an election in the USA. For independents she was a huge negative. While the right wing supporters gots lots of press in the USA, there are a huge number of more moderate voters who found her repulsive. Her views on abortion and creationism to mention two were enough to drive exactly the people the Republicans needed to appeal to far, far away. She represents the way the Republicans both rose to power, embracing the religious right, and the road to their downfall. Palin made some ill timed comments on the "real Amercia", in fact she is now a member of the old America. The new dominant demographic are the voters who turned out for Obama and gave him such a decisive victory. That a state like Indiana would vote Democrat is stunning. It presages a change in the core values of the USA, and a move away from Palin. So I think she will fade to become a sideshow in Alaska. The Republicans need a new path to power, Palin was the dying spasm of a party dominated by extremists. It failed to win them the election, and they will remember that.